New Equations May Help Predict Lifetime Risk of Kidney Failure in Kidney Donor Candidates

A team of investigators led by Morgan Grams, MD, of the CKD Prognosis Consortium recently developed equations to help predict potential kidney donors’ lifetime risk of end stage renal disease (ESRD) on the basis of their demographic and health characteristics before kidney donation.

“We suggest consideration of predonation lifetime ESRD risk in the evaluation and counseling of potential living kidney donors,” the authors of the study said. “Our equations estimate a person’s lifetime incidence of ESRD in the absence of donation according to multiple demographic and clinical characteristics.”

The team found that the predicted predonation lifetime incidence of ESRD varied by age, race, and sex. Incidence was 2.7% for 20-year-old black men, 1.1% for 20-year-old black women, 0.9% for 20-year-old white men, and 0.6% for 20-year-old white women. For 60-year-olds, predonation lifetime ESRD incidence was 0.6 percent for black men, 0.3% for black women, 0.3% for white men, and for 0.2% for white women.

Lifetime incidence of ESRD increased with additional risk factors, especially low kidney function. The predicted lifetime incidence of ESRD before donation was <1% in 88% of recent US donors.

“Predicting the Lifetime Risk of End-Stage Renal Disease in Kidney Donor Candidates” (Abstract FR-OR068).