High Racial/Ethnic Variation in ESRD Risk

Risk of end stage renal disease (ESRD) shows more than twofold variation across different racial/ethnic groups, according to a paper in the American Journal of Kidney Diseases.

The researchers analyzed USRDS data to estimate the short- and long-term probabilities (risks) of ESRD by age, sex, and race/ethnicity. Based on 2013 data, the lifetime risks of ESRD among males varied substantially by racial/ethnic group: 3.1% for non-Hispanic whites, 3.8% for Native Americans, 5.1% for Asian/Pacific Islanders, 6.2% for Hispanics, and 8.0% for non-Hispanic blacks. Lifetime risks were lower but also variable among females: 2.0% for non-Hispanic whites, 3.6% for Native Americans, 3.8% for Asian/Pacific Islanders, 4.3% for Hispanics, and 6.8% for non-Hispanic blacks.

From 2000 to 2013, the lifetime risk of ESRD increased from 3.0% to 4.0% in males and decreased from 3.0% to 2.8% in females. The disparity in lifetime ESRD risk for males versus females widened during this period: from about 1.2 in 2000 to 1.4 in 2013.

The USRDS routinely reports incidence rates of ESRD, but not the risk of developing this disease. This study shows substantial variation in the lifetime risk of ESRD: from a low of 2% for white females to more than 8% for black males. The authors note that information on additional ESRD risk factors will be needed to inform clinical practice and policy planning [Albertus P, et al. Risk of ESRD in the United States. Am J Kidney Dis 2016; 68:862–872].